Saudi Arabian Grand Prix: can Mercedes reach a podium?

by FMP50 on Mar 16, 2023 10:19 am

Blue F1 car

Following their disappointing start of the season in the opening Grand Prix of Bahrain, Lewis Hamilton and George Russell are now standing with very high odds in regards to wins and podiums for the next one. For Formula 1 observers, it was unexpected to see Mercedes struggling that much after being able to close the gap with Red Bull at the end of the 2022 season. But right now, Mercedes is considered as the fourth team on the grid, behind Red Bull, Ferrari and even Aston Martin.

Saudi Arabian Grand Prix statistics

Given their very high odds, you might be tempted to place a bet on the two Mercedes drivers, especially for a seat on the podium:

  • Hamilton: win 26 | podium 4.5

  • Russell: win 34 | podium 5

Only a couple of weeks ago, odds for Hamilton and Russell were much lower, and betting on a Grand Prix win by Mercedes was a plausible outcome. But unfortunately for the Silver Arrows, it looks like the drivers won't be able to catch up with Red Bull in the near future. Following the first Grand Prix, Mercedes boss Toto Wolff admitted publicly that the car had some design issues. They will need to be fixed with radical changes and deep rework of the sidepod. Fixing a car conceptual mistake cannot be done overnight; it will take weeks to develop a new design, if not months.

With Mercedes back to the drawing board, we cannot expect Hamilton and Russell to be competitive in the upcoming weeks. If you are keen on betting on them, my advice is to wait for a couple of weeks, study the evolutions of the car, and check if the changes start to translate into a gain in speed once on the racetrack. The Spanish Grand Prix which will take place the first week of June provides a good timeline for a significant jump in performances.

Until then, it’s better to place your bets on Aston Martin and especially on Fernando Alonso in case you are looking for an upset on the front row of the qualifications or on the podium at the end of the race. Enjoy the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix!

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